2021 Intergenerational Report – 40 Year Outlook

Colin Brinsden, AAP Economics and Business Correspondent
(Australian Associated Press)

 

BUDGET
Underlying cash balance to be in deficit over the next 40 years and to be 2.3 per cent of GDP by 2060/61. It was forecast to be 5.0 per cent of GDP ($106.6 billion) in 2020/21 as per May budget.

GROWTH
Real GDP to grow by an average annual rate of 2.6 per cent from 2020/21 to 2060/61, 0.4 percentage points lower than the past 40 years.

GROWTH PER PERSON
Real GDP to grow at an average annual rate of 1.5 per cent per person compared with 1.6 per cent over past 40 years.

POPULATION
38.8 million by 2060/61 compared to previous prediction of almost 40 million by 2054/55. This is the first time there has been a downward revision for population growth in the IGR.

AGEING
By 2060/61, for each person aged over 65, there will be only 2.7 people working, compared with four people now and 6.6 people in 1981/82.

NET DEBT
Projected to peak at 40.9 per cent of GDP in 2024/25, before falling to 28.2 per cent in 2044/45 and then increasing to 34.4 per cent by 2060/61. It was forecast to be 34.2 per cent for 2021/22 ($729 billion) in the May budget.

PRODUCTIVITY
Labour productivity to converge to 1.5 per cent annually, consistent with the 30-year historical average to 2018/19. Productivity averaged 1.2 per cent over the most recent cycle.

GOVERNMENT SPENDING:

Health – 26 per cent of total spending by 2060/61

Aged care – to double by 2060/61

Age pension/Super tax concessions – to grow to 5.0 per cent of GDP in 2060/61 from around 4.5 per cent in 2020/21.

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