Oliver’s insights – Australian home prices were up again in May – but the tension between high rates and the chronic housing shortage remains

6 June

Key points – CoreLogic data showed national average home prices rose 0.8% in May, their strongest rise since last October. – The housing market remains remarkably resilient with the housing shortage and still solid jobs market providing...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights The US presidential election – implications for investors and Australia

30 May

Key points – The run up to the 5th November US election could see increased share market volatility if Trump remains ahead and investors focus on the risks of a new trade war and a hit to the US labour force and to the Fed under Trump. –...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – The next move in the RBA cash rate likely remains down later this year

23 May

Key points – While the near-term risks for the RBA cash rate are probably on the upside, the most likely scenario is that the RBA holds rates ahead of rate cuts starting later this year. – The March quarter US and Australian inflation scare is...[Read More]

Oliver’s Insights – The economic impact of the 2024 Federal Budget

16 May

The 2024-25 Budget – another surplus, but bigger medium term deficits with more big spending, including on a “Future Made in Australia”   Key points   – The budget this year is expected to show a surplus of $9.3bn thanks to a...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Seasonal patterns in shares – should we “sell in May and go away”?

9 May

Key points – Seasonal patterns in shares gave rise to the saying “sell in May and go away, buy again on St Leger’s Day.” – However, seasonal patterns can’t always be relied on so while investors should be aware of them, betting on them...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights The art of happiness – economics and the “hedonic treadmill”

2 May

Key points – Despite a big rise in GDP per person, surveyed measures of happiness have been flat to falling in the US and Australia. – Younger people in the US, Canada, Australia and NZ are the least happy age group. This is a major change from...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Israel/Iran fears and rate cut uncertainty – shares are vulnerable to a bout of volatility but here’s five reasons why the trend will likely remain up

18 April

Key points – After strong gains, shares are vulnerable to a pull back or more volatile/constrained returns than seen so far this year. – The key threats at present are Iran’s attack on Israel which risks escalating the war in the Middle East,...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Seven things you need to know about the Australian property market

11 April

Key points – The Australian housing market remains far more complicated than optimists and doomsters portray it to be. – Australian housing is expensive and highly indebted; but it’s very diverse; mortgage arrears remain low; interest rates...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Seven lasting impacts from the COVID pandemic

28 March

Key points – Seven key lasting impacts from the Coronavirus pandemic are: “bigger” government; tighter labour markets; reduced globalisation and increased geopolitical tensions; higher inflation; worse housing affordability; working from...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Bitcoin to infinity and beyond…again!

14 March

Key points – Bitcoin has made it to new record highs, helped recently by the advent of ETFs that invest directly into it. – While blockchain technology has promise, the use case for Bitcoin is hard to determine making it impossible to...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 21 great investment quotes

7 March

Introduction Investing can be scary and confusing at times. But the basic principles of successful investing are timeless and quotes from experts help illuminate these. This note revisits a series on insightful quotes on investing I first started a...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – Seven key charts for investors to watch – where are they now?

29 February

Key points – Shares have made it to record highs this year but after strong gains are a bit vulnerable to a near term pull back. – However, we remain upbeat on a 12-month view as falling inflation allows rate cuts and hopefully recession is...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – investment outlook Q&A

15 February

Recession risks, rates and inflation, valuations, geopolitics, the US election and Swiftonomics   Key points – Rate hikes have worked in helping slow inflation and rate cuts are likely this year. Expect a bumpy ride though. – The risk of...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights – 05/02/24

8 February

Key points – The Australian Government’s changes to the Stage 3 tax cuts have refocussed attention on the need for tax reform. – The Australian tax system has five key problems: it’s heavily reliant on income tax; it’s complicated by...[Read More]

Oliver’s insights Falling inflation – what does it mean for investors?

18 January

Key points –  Inflation is in retreat thanks to improved supply and cooling demand. A further fall is likely this year. –  Australian inflation remains relatively high – but this mainly reflects lags rather than a more inflation prone...[Read More]